TY  - BOOK
AU  - Friedman,Jeffrey A.
TI  - War and chance: assessing uncertainty in international politics 
SN  - 9780190938024
PY  - 2019///
CY  - New York
PB  - Oxford University Press
KW  - International relations
KW  - Decision making
KW  - National security
KW  - Uncertainty
KW  - Political aspects
KW  - United States
KW  - Foreign relations
N1  - Introduction:'One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities' -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research
ER  -