War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics - Friedman, Jeffrey A. (Jeffrey Allan) (New York : Oxford University Press, 2019)
Introduction:'One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities' -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research.
Keywords: International relations -- Decision making; National security -- Decision making; Uncertainty -- Political aspects; Uncertainty -- Political aspects -- United States; United States -- National security -- Decision making; United States -- Foreign relations -- Decision making